Covid – 19. UK Government’s Mistakes and Lies. (part 1)

Covid – 19 (Coronavirus) is on the Rise, Why?

Imperial College London published a major report today (29th October). It says that the pace of the covid – 19 epidemic is accelerating. The report estimates that the number of people infected is increasing by 100,000 a day. That figure is doubling every nine days. (You can read the full report here)

The Government says that it has “followed the science”, that is has “put an arm round the care sector”, “provided all the PPE that is necessary”. If the government has done all it can and acted in a timely fashion why are we in this mess?

Hindsight is a Wonderful Thing.

I am always sceptical of those who use hindsite to justify their prejudices and have attempted to avoid hindsight wisdom here. My appologies if I failed, occassionally. You should also be aware that I have written about covid – 19 before and do not claim to be impartial when looking at the this government’s response. (Previous blogs are Here and Here)

Covid – 19, Back to the Start

The first confirmed fatality from covid – 19 outside China was on 2nd February. There is a feeling that Andy Gill (memebr of The Gang of Four) who died on the 1st of February may have died of Covid – 19 in St Thomas’s hospital in London.

Even before that the first confirmed cases of coronavirus in the UK came on 31 January when two Chinese nationals staying in a hotel in York tested positive.

3 February

There is a modelling group called SPI-M (The Scientific Influenza Pandemic Group on Mocdelling). It produced a report that reviewed the infection in China. One of the comments was that it was “unclear whether outbreaks can be contained by isolation and contact tracing. If a high proportion of asymptomatic cases are infectious, then containment is unlikely via these policies.”

Even on 3rd February it was clear that track and trace would not work on its own to contain and control the infection when it reached this country.

27 February

Chris Whitty (Chief Medical Officer) tells the media that mass gatherings such as sports events and concerts may have to be cancelled. That schools closed for more than two months, if the UK is hit badly by coronavirus.

Two days later, Health Minister Edward Argar told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme that “decisions on large events and whether they should go ahead will be taken at the time on the basis of the evidence.” 

I should point out that, at this point, the SPI-M advice was that closing mass events could drive people into pubs to watch football, for example, and this could be more dangerous that letting events go ahead. I have a problem with this advice. Not many games are televised live, apart from the elite clubs. So cancelling non Premier League club games would not drive hoards of people into the pubs to the watch the games. It seems to me that this advice and the whole approach from Sage and through the government was not, and is not, rooted in the real world.

3 March

The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) issued this advice; “There was agreement that Government should advise against greetings such as shaking hands and hugging, given existing evidence about the importance of hand hygiene.”

The Sage sub-group, the Independent Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Behaviours (SPI-B), said. “A public message against shaking hands has additional value as a signal about the importance of hand hygiene.”

On the very same day Boris Johnson held a press conference broadcast on national television. He said “I was at a hospital the other night where I think there were a few coronavirus patients and I shook hands with everybody, you will be pleased to know, and I continue to shake hands.”

Prick.

The “contain” phase of the government’s response to covid – 19 is launched. The idea is to “detect early cases, follow up close contacts, and prevent the disease taking hold in this country for as long as is reasonably possible”.

I wonder how that went. I will cover the next part of the story shortly.

Tags: boris johnson, coronavirus, covid-19